Goulburn-Murray Water’s (GMW) newly released Annual Water Outlook predicts 2022 will be a strong year for irrigators.
Seasonal determinations are at 100 per cent of high-reliability water shares (HRWS) in all GMW systems, with the Broken and Bullarook systems also having 100 per cent of low-reliability water shares (LRWS).
GMW is expecting the strong resource position to continue over summer, with the Bureau of Meteorology recently determining there was a 55-70 per cent chance of above median rainfall across the GMW region from December 2021 to February 2022.
GMW Water Resources manager Mark Bailey said these factors suggested 2022 would be a good year for GMW’s systems.
“The good catchment conditions mean that if we do receive above average rainfall in the next three months – as is expected – it will add to our 2022/23 reserves,” he said.
“Reserves for 2022/23 are being established in the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon systems, as the seasonal determination has reached 100 per cent of HRWS in each system.
“The Broken, Bullarook and Ovens systems are annual systems and water availability will depend on seasonal conditions and inflows closer to the start of 2022/23.”
For GMW’s unregulated systems, the positive outlook means restrictions are unlikely in the larger streams, while the smaller tributary streams may still experience restrictions.
The outlook is similarly encouraging for groundwater licence holders, with many likely to have access to 100 per cent of their allocation in 2022/23.
Dr Bailey said GMW was continuing to strategise for a future with more limited resources despite the positive short-term outlook.
“In recent decades, inflows to GMW storages have significantly declined, while increasing temperatures have also caused water to evaporate at a higher rate,” he said.
“While the outlook for 2022 is a welcome break from the long-term trends, it is still important that we adapt our methods to ensure sustainability.”
This is evident through the impact of the 2020 bushfires in northeast Victoria on water quality, which is expected to continue into 2022/23. This is largely through the movement of sediment along waterways.
While this is not likely to affect storage or channel operations in the short term, it may affect assets such as diverters’ pumps and stream gauging sites.
The Annual Water Outlook is available at www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/water-resource-update