Goulburn-Murray Water Updates 2010/11 Seasonal Allocation Outlook

Goulburn-Murray Water (G‑MW), the resource manager for northern Victorian water systems, today updated the outlook for 2010/11 seasonal allocations.

"Some areas of northern Victoria have had their wettest summer and autumn months for several years, but storage inflows have not increased significantly," said G-MW's acting Resource Manager, Mark Bailey. "The Murray system will benefit from the return of the Menindee Lakes to Murray-Darling Basin Authority control during April. Favourable conditions in the Upper Murray, Goulburn and Broken systems have improved operating reserves, although volumes remain quite low."

"The lack of sustained rainfall in the Campaspe and Loddon catchments, which is needed for substantial inflow, has severely limited inflow volumes and reserves for next season," said Dr Bailey.

Several storages will begin the 2010/11 season at higher levels than in recent years, but this does not mean seasonal allocations will be better. "The volumes are still low compared to historical levels, and the water currently in storage is not a good indicator of allocations because much of the volume is already committed to privately-owned carryover," explained Dr Bailey. "While the current low levels are an indicator that the Resource Manager will be able to make a declaration in early July 2010 about the risk of spill and the availability of water in spillable water accounts, it also means allocations are dependent on improvements from winter and spring inflows."

Dr Bailey added, "The delivery of the private carryover will depend on the operation of distribution systems, which includes natural carriers such as rivers. Carryover will remain in allocation bank accounts if delivery is not possible."

G-MW confirmed water shares will be qualified to provide access to water for essential needs if seasonal allocations are zero. Customers are encouraged to regularly review system operating plans prepared by their water corporation for further advice on deliveries.

2010/11 Outlooks

The outlooks for the 2010/11 season are based on the inflows observed to follow the conditions experienced this autumn. Three outlooks scenarios have been produced from the observed inflows to illustrate the possible variation of allocation under different inflow conditions:

            Wet                 Inflow volumes that have 10 chances in 100 (or 1 chance in 10) of being exceeded

            Average           Inflow volumes that have 50 chances in 100 (or 5 chances in 10) of being exceeded

            Dry                  Inflow volumes that have 90 chances in 100 (or 9 chances in 10) of being exceeded

The dry scenario does not represent the worst case for allocations. If worst case conditions were to occur, similar to those experienced during 2006, no allocations would be announced in any system and the deliverability of carryover could be limited.