2009/10 Irrigation Season Outlook

Goulburn-Murray Water (G-MW), Resource Manager for northern Victorian water systems, today confirmed that irrigation allocations in the 2009/10 season will depend completely on winter and spring inflows to storages.

The resources available for allocation and system operations are at record low levels across much of northern Victoria. The remaining reserves are mostly carryover allocations held by irrigators and urban water corporations.

System Operations and Carryover Availability

The security of water for essential human needs is the highest priority for water supply management. Water shares will be qualified to provide access to water for essential needs if the opening seasonal allocations are zero.

Delivery of carryover will depend on the availability of sufficient water to operate the distribution systems. Deliveries will only be possible when the distribution system serving a property is operational. Customers are reminded that distribution systems may not run continuously. If carryover water cannot be delivered, it will be held in customers' allocation bank accounts for use when it can be delivered.

Operating plans will be developed and progressively updated as more resource becomes available to meet delivery requirements for essential needs, stock water and allocation. The irrigation season for gravity irrigation areas is planned to open on 15 August 2009 if reserves are available.

2009/10 Outlooks

Inflows to the northern Victorian water systems through 2008/09 have been very low. The 2009/10 outlooks are based on observed inflows in seasons following dry autumn inflows. This approach provides an adjustment for reduced runoff caused by dry catchments.

G-MW has produced outlooks for Dry, Average and Wet inflow conditions to illustrate the range of possible allocations. G-MW emphasises that prevailing and forecast weather conditions indicate the continuation of low rainfall and poor inflows into the start of 2009/10.

Opening Allocations

Irrigation allocations on 1 July 2009 in all northern Victorian water systems are expected to be zero under dry inflow conditions.

Continued dry conditions will prevent any allocation being made available on 15 August 2009 in any system. The Murray and Goulburn systems may receive a small allocation if average inflows occur.

Spring 2009

The August to October period is historically the most productive for inflows, but inflows consistent with the Dry scenario have been experienced in the past three seasons.

The Dry outlooks suggests that both the Murray and Goulburn systems would have operating requirements met and small allocations available by October 2009. The smaller systems - the Broken, Campaspe, Loddon and Bullarook - will remain on zero allocation.

February 2010

The forecast 15 February 2010 Murray and Goulburn system allocation is 19% HRWS under continued dry conditions. No water could be allocated in the other northern Victorian water systems.

A return to inflow conditions closer to the historical average would allow all systems to have irrigation allocations of 93% for the Goulburn, 81% for the Murray and 44% for the Campaspe systems by 15 February 2010.

Summary of System Allocation Outlooks

The latest seasonal outlooks are given below. The following terminology is used in the tables:

            ‘Wet'               - Inflow volumes that have 1 chance in 10 of being exceeded

            ‘Average'         - Inflow volumes that have 5 chances in 10 of being exceeded

            ‘Dry'                - Inflow volumes that have 9 chances in 10 of being exceeded

Murray System

Goulburn System (Note: Allocations include the Benefit of Pumping from Waranga Basin)

Broken System

Campaspe System

Loddon System

G-MW will announce the opening seasonal allocations on Wednesday 1 July 2009. Detailed information on water availability and the outlook for allocations will be regularly issued during the 2009/10 season.

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Media Contact:       Graeme Hannan

Position:                   Executive Manager Water Resources

Telephone:               (03) 5833 5498